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SSPVSE Discussion Group B

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Discussion Goals

The objective of our discussion section was stated to be:

  1. to generate a clear, itemized list of the key gaps in our current predictive capabilities, and
  2. identifiy the necessary scientific understanding and technological tools needed to till these gaps.

Suggested Discussion Questions

The following suggestions for open questions are intended to get the discussion process going, so attendees can begin thinking about this.

1. How well do we understand CME propagation in the outer corona & heliosphere? What aspects of CME propagation physics most need further study? This topic has been tentatively moved to Group C.

2. How accurately can we now characterize the coronal magnetic field in 3D, and how much better will this be with forthcoming data?

3. The Physics of CME initiation is only poorly understood. How can we most effectively make progress in the scientific understanding of CME initiation?

4. To what extent can CME initiation be predicted wtihout detailed understanding of the CME initiation physics? (i.e., what is the usefulness of empirical and statistical tools?)

5. Most dangerous space weather events can be traced back to active regions with "dangerous" (e.g., delta-spot) configurations. What are the physical mechanisms that lead to such active region configurations? Can these mechanisms be predicted?

6. To what extent is it possible to predict the emergence of active regions before they reach the photosphere, or to predict the rotation of an active region from behind the limb?

7. To what extent does the pre-event corona allow us to predict eruption due to new emergence?

Discussion of Question 2.

How accurately can we now characterize the coronal magnetic field in 3D, and how much better will this be with forthcoming data? -- T. Metcalf, discussion starter

  • HMI & Solar-B high-cadence/high-spatial-resolution will be useful.
  • Are extrapolations unavoidable, or could we determine field directly by combining all available observational techniques?
  • No single measurement technique provides all the magnetic information you really need for quantitative modeling.
  • Varying types of data are useful, beyond extrapolations.
    • Coronal Seismology
    • EUV/SXR loops -- EIT/AIA
    • Coronal IR Magnetography
    • FASR -- can generate full disk field strength maps.
    • Need "global assimilative model."
    • Solar Probe at 3 R_sun for sanity check.
    • Measurements of free energy --- via free energy flux, or extrapolations, or both.
    • Most urgent need is to include more of our auxiliary information into extrapolation techniques.
    • Investigate assimilative modeling of all the data sources to determine magnetic field structure.
  • Need global-scale solutions --- errors in extrapolations frequently determined by treatment of boundaries.
  • We need force-free (chromospheric) magnetograms. IVM is prototype, need bigger FOV, better accuracy, go to space.
  • Fundamental holes in knowledge: We don't know the magnetic field in the coronal volume, and this is critical if we want to predict when we approach a meta-stable coronal state (pre-cme configuration).
  • Measurements/determination of magnetic field configuration in filament channels --- this is where CMEs originate.
  • Measurement of magnetic free energy, and free energy flux is a worthwhile project.

Comments on Proposed Discussion Questions, Anyone?

  • Please feel free to add comments under this heading!
  • Currently, we have six discussion questions, and six time periods set aside for discussion. Hence, we are tentatively planning to discuss one question per session.
  • We are seeking volunteer "scribes" for each session. Contact fisher at ssl dot berkeley dot edu to volunteer.

Informal Discussion Starters

To start off the discussion of each of these questions, we've assigned some of the group B members to give informal, extemporaneous talks (10-15 minutes at most) to kick off the discussion. These talks are supposed to be informal, and just to get everyone thinking and get their juices flowing.

Question 1. - Zwickl This topic has been tentatively moved to Group C.

Question 2. - Metcalf

Question 3. - Antiochos

Question 4. - Falconer

Question 5. - DeVore

Question 6. - Hill

Question 7. - Welsch

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